Current issue view: Expected disturbance test higher
- Market review: market sentiment disturbance, spot fluctuation;
- Cost analysis: high running of raw materials, strong cost support;
- Supply and demand analysis: the epidemic delayed demand, inventory decline narrowed;
- Macro analysis: Steady economic growth, demand to maintain resilience.
- Comprehensive point of view: this week’s market trend is contrary to last week: at the beginning of the week, due to the financial data in February is not as expected, superposition of the epidemic relapse, black commodities sharply lower, domestic construction steel prices fell sharply;Subsequently, in the management of the release of positive stimulus, black goods stopped falling rebound, market sentiment quickly picked up, construction steel quotation overall rebound – the whole week was “first suppression and then Yang” trend, and our judgment last week “shock digestion, interval repair” consistent. For next week’s market trend, the market forecast is still cautious, the main negative factors are: first, the epidemic control on the demand side of the impact, it is difficult to enlarge the short-term trading volume; Second, after the end of the heating season, the effect of the northern production limit is basically eliminated, and the blast furnace output rises steadily, and the supply side is expected to maintain growth; Third, this week the construction of steel social inventory decline is small, and factory inventory recovery, steel high transfer inventory blocked; In addition, the overall rebound in the futures market this week has boosted market confidence, but continued to pull higher will be suppressed by the policy end. The main positive factors are as follows: First, the government will step up efforts to stabilize the economy and ensure growth, and policy measures will be introduced one after another. Second, the real estate industry has basically reversed the decline and will continue to recover later. Third, the recent overall strong raw materials, especially coke and scrap steel prices at a high, cost support is still obvious. Overall, the current market is in a “short-term favorable empty, long-term trend”, construction steel prices will be in the “suppression” and “breakthrough” demand balance. Comprehensive factors, we hold positive evaluation of the market next week – red alert: expected disturbance, trial to go higher. Specifically, the steel index will run in the range of 5100-5250 yuan.
